Turkey has held an official meeting with Assad?

A PKK leader talks about a recent meeting in Algeria between Turkey, Iran, and Assad.

That Erdogan would eventually ally himself with Assad against the Kurds was long expected. I talked about this here.

An analysis of Erdogan’s overall actions and policy in Syria will show clearly that this man was never serious about supporting a moderate opposition in Syria. He never sought to establish a realistic alternative to Assad.

Erdogan never wanted insurgents to topple Assad. Apparently he thinks that such a scenario would be beneficial to the Kurds, who are themselves insurgents.

Erdogan created chaos in Syria because he wanted to justify a foreign military intervention. That is the only thing he wanted. The idea of toppling Assad by supporting a local opposition force was never on his agenda. He actually views such an idea as a threat.

It has become clear now that what Erdogan wants will not happen. There will not be a direct military intervention against Assad. The international community will only support moderate Syrian forces.

Erdogan is likely to change his policy and cooperate with Assad against the Kurds. The fact that Turkey has recently held an official meeting with Assad in Algeria is significant.

Cooperation between Erdogan and Assad will not bring stability to Syria. I actually doubt very much that Erdogan will be able to convince his Syrian militias with such a thing. He has been pressing them hard to fight the Kurds, but they have not fought a serious war against the Kurds. Their priority is to defeat Assad. They see that as more essential than fighting the Kurds or the IS.

If cooperation between Turkey and Assad becomes clear, many of the Syrian oppositionists supported by Turkey will probably defect to the SDF or to Al-Qaida. Those are more realistic alternatives than going back into Assad’s lap.

اترك تعليقًا

إملأ الحقول أدناه بالمعلومات المناسبة أو إضغط على إحدى الأيقونات لتسجيل الدخول:

شعار ووردبريس.كوم

أنت تعلق بإستخدام حساب WordPress.com. تسجيل خروج   /  تغيير )

Facebook photo

أنت تعلق بإستخدام حساب Facebook. تسجيل خروج   /  تغيير )

Connecting to %s